Bijli, Pani aur Dollars, NOT, Roti, Kapra aur Makan?

Bijli, Pani aur Dollars, NOT, Roti, Kapra aur Makan?.

Rupee all set to hit Century.

As we come to the close of 2012, the Pak Rupee is hovering close to the 100 mark in the open market. By itself, the exchange rate is not a full economic indicator of the health of the economy, but movements in the rate over a period can point towards economic problems. In our case, the indicators have dire consequences.

In a 5 year period from January 2008 to the date of this article the Rupee has depreciated from 60.9 to 97.7 against the US Dollar. That is a whopping 60% depreciation. To put this in perspective, in the same period, some other regional currencies showed the following trend: Indian Rupees – 39%; Sri Lankan Rupees: 19%; Bangladesh Taka: 18%; Nepalese Rupees: 38%.

A depreciating currency should help the exports of a country. Taking a 5 year period again, and using calendar(not fiscal) year 2008 base exports of $ 19.58 billion, by the end of this calendar year we are expected to reach exports of $ 24.5 billion. A measly 25% growth against a 60% devaluation.

It is plain the government does not know what they are doing. Who were the finance ministers during this period?

1) November 2007 to March 2008            Salman Shah

2) April 2008 to May 2008                          Ishaq Dar

3) June 2008 to October 2008                  Naveed Qamar

4) November 2008 to February 2010       Shaukat Tareen

5) March 2010 to Incumbent                    Hafeez Shaikh

In my next blog I will discuss some of the reasons for this anomaly!

Rauf Kadri

Founder

Pakistan Economic Reform Party

PERP Polling Results

 

As most of you are aware, PERP recently conducted a poll on “What are the gravest issues facing Pakistan today?” 15 choices were provided and a column was left for comments and issues not listed in the poll. Respondents were to mark 3 most important issues. Here are the summarized results. You can obtain more details by writing to the Party email: erppakistan@yahoo.ca

 

PAKISTAN ECONOMIC REFORM PARTY – POLL RESULTS

URBAN RESULTS (Ranked)                   RURAL RESULTS  (Ranked)            

1) Corruption                                22.4%    (1) Inflation, Poverty

                                                                          & Unemployment               44.8%                

2) Lack of/Non-Equality of    

    Rule of Law                              12.8%    (2) Lack of Health Care          16.8%

3) Illiteracy                                    12.4%    (3) Energy/Water Crisis          16.4%

4) Religious Extremism               10.0%   (4) Lack of/Non-Equality of    

                                                                           Rule of Law                        10.0%5) Inflation, Poverty                                  

    & Unemployment                      9.2%    (5) Corruption                             9.6%

6)Terrorism                                   7.6%    (6) Other (less than 2%)            2.4%

7) Energy Crisis                            7.2%

8) Non-Availability of Justice      5.6%

9) Lack of Political Stability         4.4%

10) International Interference    2.4%

11) Other (less than 2%)              6.0%

Urban  results were based on a poll held on the social media sites and had a sample size of 250. Rural results were based on a face to face interview conducted  in 10 districts of  the 4 provinces of Pakistan and had a total sample size of 250.

There seems to be a sharp Urban-rural divide which will be discussed in the next blog.