With 3 weeks left for the elections, the Election Analysis Team of the Pakistan Economic Reform Party (PERP) is predicting the following results and has posted these comments:
1) 272 general seats will be contested (does not include reserved and minority seats)
2) Breakdown of the 272 seats are:
Punjab = 148 (54.5%)
Sindh = 61 (22.4%)
KP = 35 (12.9%)
Balochistan = 14 (5.1%)
FATA = 12 (4.4%)
Islamabad = 2 (0.7)
3) None of the major parties have announced a proper economic agenda. Most of them have just used election slogans.
4) Based on a seat to seat analysis, our predictions are:
PML (N) 112
PPPP 73
PTI 30
MQM 18
ANP 7
PML (Q) 6
PML (F) 5
JUI (F) 4
Others 17 (includes 12 FATA independents)
5) To have a simple majority, one requires 137 seats. No one appears to be in that
position.
6) The most likely coalition appears to be:
PML (N) + FATA + PML (F) + JUI (F) +Independents.
This would give the coalition 138 votes and opposition 134.
7) This would be a very thin majority. PTI may have to be lured in.
erppakistanblog 