Bijli, Pani aur Dollars, NOT, Roti, Kapra aur Makan?


Bijli, Pani aur Dollars, NOT, Roti, Kapra aur Makan?.

Bijli, Pani aur Dollars, NOT, Roti, Kapra aur Makan?


Elections are over. Government has been formed. It is now time to fulfill the election promises. The Roti, Kapra aur Makan slogan has today changed to Bijli, Pani aur Dollars (Electricity, Water and Dollars).

The PML(N) manifesto has a whole chapter (Ch. 2) devoted to Energy Security. Interestingly, the Urdu manifesto names this chapter ” Tawanai ki musalsal aur munasib qimat per farhami”. The estimated cost required to produce an extra 10,000 MW in the manifesto is $ 20 billion. Half of this will come from coal fired plants from Thar coal.  First of all, present cost of a 1000MW coal plant is abt. $ 3.7 billion, making the coal plants cost abt. $ 18.5 billion  for 5000MW. If we take the cost of other plants and for renovating existing plants at 60% of the  coal plant costs, the projected cost for their scheme will be about $ 30 billion. AND GIVEN MASSIVE CORRUPTION, THIS IS CONSERVATIVE.

And where does the government plan to raise this kind of money for their 5 year program? It appears that the financial advisors of the party have told the PM that this will come mostly from foreign investment and some from eliminating electricity subsidies. This fits well with the IMF recommendation for the IMF/World Bank trained financial advisors of the government. But even if all subsidies are withdrawn, at best we can generate an extra 3 billion dollars, of which 60% will go to other budget heads, leaving $ 1.2 billion/year for the $ 30 billion required for 5 years. It appears that the “Munasib Qimat” in the PML (N) manifesto was just an election gimmick ( or maybe a translation error?)

I will not talk much about foreign investments. It appears that the financial advisors have once again misguided the PM that like his first term economic reforms in the early ninety’s the floodgates of foreign investments will once again open( even than it was mostly MOU’s-Memorandum of Understandings rather than cash inflows).

Pakistan’s need for dollars is alarming and not just for energy investments. The state bank of Pakistan dollar reserves has fallen to 6.4 billion from 14.8 billion in July 2011. As one of our engineer party members has suggested, using hydel energy (Dams) could be a viable alternative (Pani). The operating cost of a hydel plant is about 1/10 of a coal plant and has much less environmental and technical issues. The biggest opponent to this is KP and Sindh. Both have opposition governments. Can the PM pull through a consensus? Unlikely!

The main problem is that the government and even the opposition (PPPP and PTI) do not have sufficient knowledge, expertise and the right type of economic advisors to tackle the energy or the other economic problems of Pakistan.

I hope that the government completes its term and the people of Pakistan realize for the next elections that we need a new party with a concrete economic agenda.

 

Rauf Kadri

Founder

Pakistan Economic Reform Party (PERP)

 

 

 

FINAL COMMENTS – ELECTIONS 2013 – ACCEPT THE RESULTS


In 2008, PPP got 30.6% of the votes and picked up 35.9% of the seats. PML(N) managed 19.6% of the votes and 26.3% of the seats. PML(Q), the third largest party, got 23% of the popular votes but only 15.5% of the elected seats. Why? Based on the delimitation of constituencies and the concentration of a party’s voter block, this is how the system works. It is unfair to cry rigging every time your favorite loses.

2013 will likely be no different. PTI will replace PML (Q) but due to the lack of geographical concentration of their voters will end up with a disproportionately lower percentage of seats. PPP and PML (N) will swap positions.

Is it Fair? NO. Is it rigging? NO. Do we need to change the System? YES. Pakistan Economic Reform Party(PERP), has developed proposals for the next elections in which we will be participating with full vigor InshaAllah.

Rauf Kadri

Chairman, PERP

 

Pakistan 2013 Elections – Coalition in sight


With 3 weeks left for the elections, the Election Analysis Team of the Pakistan Economic Reform Party (PERP) is predicting the following results and has posted these comments:

1) 272 general seats will be contested (does not include reserved and minority seats)

2) Breakdown of the 272 seats are:         
                                                 

Punjab =           148 (54.5%)

                                                                                     

Sindh =               61 (22.4%)

                                                                                     

KP     =                35 (12.9%)

                                                                                     

Balochistan =   14 (5.1%)

                                                                                     

FATA =               12 (4.4%)

                                                                                    

Islamabad =        2 (0.7)

3) None of the major parties have announced a proper economic agenda. Most of them have just used election slogans.

4) Based on a seat to seat analysis, our predictions are:

    PML (N)                   112
    PPPP                         73
    PTI                             30
    MQM                         18
    ANP                             7
    PML (Q)                      6
    PML (F)                      5
    JUI (F)                        4
    Others                     17 (includes 12 FATA independents)

 

5) To have a simple majority, one requires 137 seats. No one appears to be in that
     position.

 

6) The most likely coalition appears to be:
     PML (N)  + FATA + PML (F) + JUI (F) +Independents.
    This would give the coalition 138   votes and opposition 134.

7) This would be a very thin majority. PTI may have to be lured in.

 

RAUF KADRI
CHAIRMAN, PERP

CARETAKER GOVERNMENT – FORMATION


As expected, the Media in Pakistan has started bashing the politicians and the political parties for the delay in selecting a caretaker government.

In an earlier blog, I had proposed some rules of the game for caretaker governments. It has been the history of caretaker governments in the country to act as more powerful than democratically elected governments. Given that presently there are no guidelines or constraints for caretaker governments, it is a myth to assume that they will be merely administrative heads working under the eye of the ECP. Due to vested political interests, a politician should be the least desirable choice for the caretaker government (CG). My earlier recommendations were:

1) The CG shall NOT make any major policy decision that is likely to commit an incoming government.

2) The CG shall NOT make any significant appointment (bureaucratic and public-sector).

3) The CG shall NOT enter into any major commercial contract or undertaking.

4) The CG shall NOT make any major international commitment.

5) Unless absolutely necessary, there shall be NO Presidential Ordinances during the tenure of the CG.

Until such guidelines or rules are in place, let us not ridicule the present process of forming the Caretaker Government.

Caretaker Government in Pakistan

Aside


Caretaker Government

As the date for forming the caretaker government approaches among much controversy and speculation, the following guiding principles for the caretakers should be put in place immediately. Given the chequered history of caretaker governments, all political parties are justifiably concerned with the choice. The controversy could derail the process of democracy in the country. The Pakistan Economic Reform Party (PERP) believes that Pakistan’s future political and economic survival lies in true parliamentary democracy. We recommend that a short Act be passed by parliament to diffuse this dispute. The role of the caretakers can be restricted in the following terms:

 
1) The caretaker government (CG) shall NOT make any major policy decision that is likely to commit an incoming government.
2) The CG shall NOT make any significant appointment (bureaucratic and public-sector).
3) The CG shall NOT enter into any major commercial contract or undertaking.
4) The CG shall NOT make any major international commitment.
5) Unless absolutely necessary, there shall be NO Presidential Ordinances during the tenure of the CG.
 
Any exception to the above rules would need consultation with all major political parties.
Rauf Kadri
Founder Pakistan Economic Reform Party (PERP)
erppakistan@yahoo.ca